Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 17, 2021 02:00PM UTC

The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 17 June 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

80%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

446

Forecast
Count

764

Crowd Brier Score

0.1605


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.17
2.
-0.169
3.
-0.169
4.
-0.169
5.
-0.169

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