Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (BBC, Gov.cn, Brookings). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (BBC, Tribune India).

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The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 100%
1 0%
2 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 349
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.093
2.
-0.083
3.
-0.081
4.
-0.079
5.
-0.077

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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