Started Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?

Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration (Independent, Reuters, VOA News, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.

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NOTE 28 June 2021: A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only detonate a nuclear device 0%
Yes, only launch an ICBM 0%
Yes, both 0%
No 100%

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