Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?

As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (CNN, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 14.5 million 0%
Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million 5%
Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive 37%
More than 19.0 million 58%

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