Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?

Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).

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Name Probability
Less than $25 billion 1%
Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive 26%
More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion 40%
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive 25%
More than $55 billion 6%
Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021 2%

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