Adam Grant asks:
What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?
Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).
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| Name | Probability |
|---|---|
| Less than $25 billion | 1% |
| Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive | 26% |
| More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion | 40% |
| Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive | 25% |
| More than $55 billion | 6% |
| Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021 | 2% |