Adam Grant asks:
What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?
Closed Jul 29, 2021 08:00PM UTC
Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 July 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $25 billion | 1% | |
| Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive | 42% | |
| More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion | 44% | |
| Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive | 10% | |
| More than $55 billion | 3% | |
| Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 174 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 599 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
