Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?

Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (Economist, Fox News, Merck). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count (FDA, FDA).

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NOTE 3 August 2021: FDA approval for molnupiravir for use in combination with other therapeutics to treat COVID-19 would count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 192
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 596
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.433
2.
-0.433
3.
-0.425
4.
-0.392
5.
-0.388

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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