Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant and 024_andrew and ask:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?

A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (ABC Australia, Guardian, BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 206
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 451
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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