Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?

AgResearch is "responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector," and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (AgResearch). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (AgResearch - Annual Reports). For FY 2019/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report, see "Surplus/(deficit) before tax" on page 103).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.00%
No 15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.037
2.
-0.037
3.
-0.037
5.
-0.037

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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