Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?

After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, "Israeli government" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 July 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

144

Forecast
Count

737

Crowd Brier Score

0.7059


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.825
2.
-0.824
3.
-0.822
4.
-0.807
5.
-0.803

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