Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?

After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, "Israeli government" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 737
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.824
3.
-0.822
4.
-0.807
5.
-0.803

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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