jayb asks:

How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

Started Jun 04, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be "above-normal" (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).

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The question closed "4" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
2 or fewer 0%
3 0%
4 100%
5 0%
6 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 1024
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.127
2.
-0.12
3.
-0.109
4.
-0.108
5.
-0.106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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