Started Jun 04, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

jayb asks:

How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be "above-normal" (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).

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The question closed "4" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
2 or fewer 0%
3 0%
4 100%
5 0%
6 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1024
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.127
2.
-0.12
3.
-0.109
4.
-0.108
5.
-0.106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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