Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?

Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 16, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (Business Today). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39 per barrel.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 16 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 47.00%
No 53.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 327
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.858
2.
-0.852
3.
-0.777
4.
-0.691
5.
-0.648

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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