Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?

The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "Writing and printing papers" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 (BLS - PPI). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% (BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021, see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under "PPI Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes." For "1 Select a Group," select "09 Pulp, paper, and allied products." For "2 Select one or more Items," find and select "091301 Writing and printing papers." For "3 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Not Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."

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The question closed "More than 5.5%" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.0% 0%
Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive 0%
More than 2.5% but less than 4.0% 0%
Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive 0%
More than 5.5% 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 273
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.352
2.
-0.342
3.
-0.333
4.
-0.324
5.
-0.313

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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