Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?

Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (Reuters). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (CNN, NY Times). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (UN). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.

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NOTE 16 August 2021: If a second round must be held to determine a winner and the second round is not held before 1 January 2022, then the question would close "no."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 323
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059
2.
-0.059
3.
-0.058
5.
-0.058

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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