Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?

Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2021 08:00PM UTC

On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (Rio Times, Reuters, Bloomberg). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (AS/COA).

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The question closed "Gabriel Boric" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Gabriel Boric 82%
Sebastián Sichel 0%
Another candidate 18%
There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 385
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.433
3.
-0.433
5.
-0.425

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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