Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 13, 2021 02:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?

On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that "Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time" (hhs.gov). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 30 July 2021: If the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans considered to have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 as of the launch of this question to receive an additional dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it would count for the resolution of this question.

NOTE 6 August 2021: This question will resolve based on the date a recommendation is made.


The question closed "Before 1 September 2021" with a closing date of 12 August 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 September 2021 99%
Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 1%
Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021 0%
Not before 1 January 2022 0%

No. of
Forecasters

136

Forecast
Count

373

Crowd Brier Score

0.3887


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.471
2.
-0.427
3.
-0.418
4.
-0.418
5.
-0.414

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username