Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?
On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that "Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time" (hhs.gov). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.
NOTE 30 July 2021: If the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans considered to have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 as of the launch of this question to receive an additional dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it would count for the resolution of this question.
NOTE 6 August 2021: This question will resolve based on the date a recommendation is made.
The question closed "Before 1 September 2021" with a closing date of 12 August 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Before 1 September 2021||99%|
|Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021||1%|
|Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021||0%|
|Not before 1 January 2022||0%|