Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 13, 2021 02:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?

On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that "Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time" ( The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.

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NOTE 30 July 2021: If the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans considered to have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 as of the launch of this question to receive an additional dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it would count for the resolution of this question.

NOTE 6 August 2021: This question will resolve based on the date a recommendation is made.

The question closed "Before 1 September 2021" with a closing date of 12 August 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 September 2021 99%
Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 1%
Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021 0%
Not before 1 January 2022 0%

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