Started Aug 13, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 13, 2022 08:01AM UTC

erikbays asks:

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

Regional tensions involving Iran continue (Reuters, Washington Post, BBC). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 February 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 140
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 314
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username