Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC


Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 February 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 415
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username