Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 415
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.02
3.
-0.019
4.
-0.018
5.
-0.018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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