Question 6 of 6 in The Sky News Challenge
Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Current Crowd Forecast

9%

Chance
+0.00% in last 24 hours

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username