asks:
When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?
Closed Jun 28, 2022 02:00PM UTC
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence (Sky News, House of Commons Library, Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., 2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., Scottish Parliament's "Scotland's Choice" Motion) would count.
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The question closed "Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022" with a closing date of 28 June 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 1 January 2022 | 0% | |
Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022 | 0% | |
Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022 | 11% | |
Not before 1 January 2023 | 89% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 183 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 618 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |