Question 1 of 6 in The Sky News Challenge
Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

asks:

When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence (Sky News, House of Commons Library, Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., 2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., Scottish Parliament's "Scotland's Choice" Motion) would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 1 January 2022 1.00% -1.00%
Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022 20.00% -1.00%
Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022 36.00% +1.00%
Not before 1 January 2023 43.00% +1.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username