Started Aug 31, 2021 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 21, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?

With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see "Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart).

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The question closed "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher 0%
The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower 100%
Neither will occur before 12 November 2021 0%

No. of
Forecasters

58

Forecast
Count

162

Crowd Brier Score

0.3512


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.46
2.
-0.423
3.
-0.409
4.
-0.323
5.
-0.321

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