Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?
Closed Sep 21, 2021 03:00AM UTC
With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see "Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher | 0% | |
| The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower | 100% | |
| Neither will occur before 12 November 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 162 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
