Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?

Started Aug 31, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2021 03:00AM UTC

With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see "Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart).

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The question closed "The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher 0%
The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower 100%
Neither will occur before 12 November 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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