Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).

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The question closed "More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4.8 million 0%
Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive 1%
More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million 99%
Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 6.0 million 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 149
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.054
2.
-0.052
3.
-0.046
4.
-0.04
5.
-0.038

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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