Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Bobbiekar52 asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?

CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ( Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.06%
No 97.94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 421
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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