Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, All Africa). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, Reuters, UN).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.93%
No 97.07%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 191
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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