Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 12, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?

The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases (Ontario.ca, CBC, CTV News). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 12 February 2022" with a closing date of 12 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 19 November 2021 0%
Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021 0%
Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022 0%
Not before 12 February 2022 100%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 113
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 204
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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