The Economist and 024_andrew ask:
Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?
Closed Apr 24, 2022 07:01AM UTC
France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later (Economist, France24). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 (Politico.eu, Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)" with a closing date of 24 April 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| National Rally (Rassemblement National) | 3% | |
| The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!) | 97% | |
| The Republicans (Les Républicains) | 0% | |
| Unbowed France (La France Insoumise) | 0% | |
| None of the above | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 281 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 938 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 637 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
