Started Oct 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 24, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist and 024_andrew ask:

Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?

France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later (EconomistFrance24). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 (Politico.eu, Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls).

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The question closed "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)" with a closing date of 24 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
National Rally (Rassemblement National) 3%
The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!) 97%
The Republicans (Les Républicains) 0%
Unbowed France (La France Insoumise) 0%
None of the above 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 281
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 938
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.106
4.
-0.097
5.
-0.09

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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