Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?
Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (RENX.ca, Canadian Real Estate, Bloomberg, Toronto Star). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (Colliers Canada). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019, Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021).
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours|
|Lower than 5.0%||0.00%||+0.00%|
|Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive||47.00%||-1.00%|
|Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%||43.00%||-1.00%|
|Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive||10.00%||+2.00%|
|Higher than 11.0%||0.00%||+0.00%|