Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?

Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (CNBC, Car and Driver). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 100.0 (thousands) 95%
Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive 5%
More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands) 0%
Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive 0%
More than 700.0 (thousands) 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 151
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 593
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.203
2.
-0.195
3.
-0.185
4.
-0.181
5.
-0.178

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username