The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:
What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?
Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (CNBC, Car and Driver). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).
|Possible Answer||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)||95%|
|Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive||5%|
|More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)||0%|
|Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive||0%|
|More than 700.0 (thousands)||0%|