Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 29, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist and belikewater ask:

What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?

Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides (Yahoo, Capital.com). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (Bloomberg, London Metal Exchange).

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The question closed "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200" with a closing date of 29 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than $2,000 0%
Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive 0%
Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600 0%
Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive 0%
Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200 57%
$3,200 or higher 43%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 1017
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.211
2.
-0.206
3.
-0.205
4.
-0.199
5.
-0.17

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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