Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?

Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues (Power Technology, McKinsey). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year (TEDB - Edition 39 (2021), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "More than 5.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

(The pertinent edition of the TEDB has not been published, but we received the relevant data for resolution directly from Oak Ridge National Laboratory.)

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.0% 1%
Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive 7%
More than 3.0% but less than 4.0% 9%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 10%
More than 5.0% 73%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 508
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username