Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?

Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues (Power Technology, McKinsey). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year (TEDB - Edition 39 (2021), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).

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Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.0% 1%
Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive 7%
More than 3.0% but less than 4.0% 9%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 10%
More than 5.0% 73%
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