Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 24, 2022 03:53PM UTC

DrStrangelove asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?

Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.

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NOTE 8 November 2021: Cyberattacks would not count.

NOTE 11 January 2022: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 264
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 1169
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.582
2.
-0.562
3.
-0.561
4.
-0.538
5.
-0.538

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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