The Economist asks:

When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?

Started Nov 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2022 09:36PM UTC

The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 (Sorted TSA Data Download, see both sheets).

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The question closed "Not before 1 October 2022" with a closing date of 28 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2022 2%
Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022 1%
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022 1%
Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022 10%
Not before 1 October 2022 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 1496
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.506578
2.
-0.469743
3.
-0.456499
4.
-0.450901
5.
-0.441408

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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