Started Nov 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 26, 2022 07:00PM UTC

When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?

On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that "the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook" (Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (NY Fed).

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The question closed "Before 4 May 2022" with a closing date of 26 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 May 2022 100%
Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022 0%
Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022 0%
Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022 0%
Not before 15 December 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 178
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.122
3.
-0.113
4.
-0.089
5.
-0.081

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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