Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Bloomberg, Diplomat).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8.27%
No 91.73%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 445
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017
2.
-0.017
3.
-0.017
4.
-0.017

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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