Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?
Started
Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Bloomberg, Diplomat).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 8.27% | |
No | 91.73% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 130 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 445 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |