Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (Tesla).
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The question closed "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 700,000 | 3% | |
| Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive | 3% | |
| More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000 | 75% | |
| Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive | 19% | |
| More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000 | 0% | |
| 1,900,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 88 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 588 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
