Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (Tesla).

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The question closed "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 700,000 3%
Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive 3%
More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000 75%
Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive 19%
More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000 0%
1,900,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 588
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.19
2.
-0.189
3.
-0.17
4.
-0.157
5.
-0.143

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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