Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?

Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using the "Year to date" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 (SMMT - News 6 December 2021).

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The question closed "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 150,000 0%
Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive 9%
More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000 12%
Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive 69%
More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000 9%
350,000 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 230
Number of Forecasts 520
Average for questions older than 6 months: 638
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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