Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using the "Year to date" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 (SMMT - News 6 December 2021).
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The question closed "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 150,000 | 0% | |
| Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive | 9% | |
| More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000 | 12% | |
| Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive | 69% | |
| More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000 | 9% | |
| 350,000 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 74 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 230 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 520 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 638 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
