Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?

Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 61.50% +0.50%
No 38.50% -0.50%

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