Started Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 31, 2016 09:00PM UTC

Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 30 July 2016. In late July, the IMF's executive board announced that they would not be releasing the next tranche of the loan until at least mid-August (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Ukraine Today). In March 2015, the IMF approved a four-year, $17.5-billion loan program for Ukraine (IMF). Two tranches of funds have been released, but the third has been delayed by concerns over stalled progress on expected reforms (Reuters). In May 2016, Ukraine secured preliminary approval for the release of the next tranche of that loan, but final approval, which the IMF plans to consider at its July board meeting, is contingent on further Ukrainian reforms (Wall Street Journal, Reuters, IMF). Extending the review process or delaying the approval decision (e.g. by requiring Ukraine to show more progress in meeting IMF conditions, as they did in May 2016) will not resolve the question as "yes." Clarification issued 5 July 2016: The question will resolve as "yes" when the IMF approves the release of the next tranche of loans to Ukraine, regardless of the dollar amount. Recommended Questions: Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016? What will happen to the European Union's sectoral sanctions against Russia, currently set to expire in July 2016?

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

143

Forecast
Count

454

Crowd Brier Score

1.1217


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.235
2.
-1.151
3.
-1.086
4.
-0.98
5.
-0.979

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