Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

Started Dec 15, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
At a meeting in December 2015, NATO foreign ministers formally invited Montenegro to start accession talks that are supposed to culminate in Montenegro joining the alliance (NATO, BBC, Forbes). Recommended Questions Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017? Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 636
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2871
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.077
3.
-0.076
4.
-0.076

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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