Started Feb 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 28, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?

Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (NPR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (SteelBenchmarker, see USA FOB mill, "Dollars per Metric Tonne," page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for "Plate" was 2,015.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 180
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 547
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.145
2.
-0.145
3.
-0.145
5.
-0.145

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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