On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 February 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.