Started Feb 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 22, 2022 03:20PM UTC

Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?

On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 February 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 159
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 547
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.041
2.
-0.041
3.
-0.041
4.
-0.041
5.
-0.041

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username