Started Feb 24, 2022 05:30PM UTC   •   Closed May 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Tylerdurden03 asks:

Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 May 2022?

As Russia invades Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, there is speculation as to how far Russia is willing to go (BBC, NPR). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 2 March 2022: If President Zelensky dies, he would be deemed to have ceased to be president upon his death.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 May 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 506
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 1818
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.207
2.
-0.207
3.
-0.207
4.
-0.207
5.
-0.207

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username