Started Feb 24, 2022 05:30PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?

On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent states, triggering international condemnation (BBC, NPR). As Russia pushes forces into Ukraine, there is speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, New Eastern Europe, Al Jazeera, G4 Media [in Romanian]).

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NOTE 24 February 2022: The question description didn't load properly at launch. It has been added above.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 1079
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.098
2.
-0.098
3.
-0.097
4.
-0.089

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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