Question 23 of 27 in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Started Feb 24, 2022 05:30PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?

On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent states, triggering international condemnation (BBC, NPR). As Russia pushes forces into Ukraine, there is speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, New Eastern Europe, Al Jazeera, G4 Media [in Romanian]).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 24 February 2022: The question description didn't load properly at launch. It has been added above.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 4.00% +0.00%
No 96.00% -0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username