Started Feb 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

As of 1 July 2022, will France and/or Germany require the wearing of face masks in indoor public places?

Denmark became the first EU member state to eliminate all of its COVID-19 restrictions, and other states are considering the future of their own measures, including mandatory masking (CNN, France 24, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by "Re-open EU" for France and Germany in July 2022 (Re-open EU). For each country, see "General measures" under "CORONAVIRUS MEASURES" (Re-open EU - France General measures, Re-open EU - Germany General measures). If that site ceases to provide updated information, general open-source reporting will be used for resolution. Local measures within either country would be immaterial, and a lifting of masking requirements with specific exceptions (e.g., medical facilities, homes for the elderly) would count.

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NOTE 20 June 2022: For the purposes of this question, public transport and/or long-distance train or plane facilities are not considered to concern "public indoor places."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, France only 0%
Yes, Germany only 0%
Yes, both France and Germany 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 234
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017
2.
-0.017
3.
-0.017
4.
-0.016
5.
-0.016

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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