Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Balzac and David Epstein ask:

Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?

Soon after invading Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on "special alert" (BBC, AP). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 361
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1046
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username