Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Balzac and David Epstein ask:

Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?

Soon after invading Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on "special alert" (BBC, AP). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
No 99.00% -0.00% -0.00% -0.00%

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