Question 20 of 27 in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?

Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 1.00% +0.00%
No 99.00% -0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username