Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?

Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 227
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 656
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.154
2.
-0.154
3.
-0.154
4.
-0.154
5.
-0.154

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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