Between 18 March 2022 and 30 December 2022, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?

Started Mar 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Oil prices have seen new multiyear highs amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which may incentivize US producers to increase production (The Hill, Valley News Live). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" between 18 March 2022 and 30 December 2022 to count. On 16 February 2022, before Russia's invasion, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.0 million barrels per day in 2022 (EIA - Today in Energy).

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The question closed "Between 11,800 and 12,200 thousand b/d, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 11,800 thousand b/d 3%
Between 11,800 and 12,200 thousand b/d, inclusive 89%
More than 12,200 but less than 12,600 thousand b/d 6%
Between 12,600 and 13,000 thousand b/d, inclusive 2%
More than 13,000 thousand b/d but less than 13,400 thousand b/d 0%
13,400 thousand b/d or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 230
Number of Forecasts 576
Average for questions older than 6 months: 638
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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