Started Mar 18, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway (CNBC, AP). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 June 2022 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.00%
Between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2022 6.00% +0.00% -1.00% -1.00%
Not before 1 December 2022 93.00% +0.00% +1.00% +2.00%

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