How many quarters of negative real GDP growth will the European Union (EU) experience in 2022?

Started Mar 25, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

With high inflation and the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fears are growing that the EU could enter a recession this year (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data from Eurostat for "GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income)" specifically for "European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)" as reported upon the release of the final estimates for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in March 2023 (Eurostat, Eurostat - Release Calendar). Set the "Seasonal adjustment" to "Seasonally and calendar adjusted data" and "Unit of measure" to "Chain linked volumes (2010), million euro." Values for each 2022 quarter that are lower than the value the preceding quarter will be considered to have been a quarter of negative real GDP growth. The final estimate for GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, as of the launch of this question, was EUR 3,167,670.0 million, up 0.4% from the previous quarter (Eurostat - GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the fourth quarter of 2021, see Page 10 table titled "GDP AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS" for "t/t-1" and "EU").

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Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 18%
One 67%
Two 13%
Three or more 2%
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