Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Bobbiekar52 asks:

Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

The US has alleged that Russia is considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine (France 24). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial.

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NOTE 12 April 2022: An accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not be considered an accusation that chemical or biological weapons were used.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 190
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 910
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.13
2.
-0.13
3.
-0.13
4.
-0.128
5.
-0.128

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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