Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 02, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be the value of the Green Markets Weekly North American Fertilizer Price Index for the week from 2 December 2022?

Fertilizer costs in the US have skyrocketed to historic highs in recent months (Farm Bureau, CNBC, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Green Markets (Green Markets).

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The question closed "Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 700.00 6%
Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive 85%
More than 900.00 but less than 1,100.00 8%
Between 1,100.00 and 1,300.00, inclusive 1%
More than 1,300.00 but less than 1,500.00 0%
Between 1,500.00 and 1,700.00, inclusive 0%
More than 1,700.00 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 399
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.413
2.
-0.288
3.
-0.27
4.
-0.236
5.
-0.22

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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